Author: Reza Shabahang
Shabahang, Reza, 2025 A Preliminary Investigation into Belief in Media Conspiracy Theories: Conceptualisation, Measurement, Exploration, and Intervention, Flinders University, College of Education, Psychology and Social Work
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Conspiracy theories are pervasive in contemporary life and have the potential to cause significant negative outcomes for people and societies. These theories can target a wide range of subjects, including media—for example, some people believe that Mark Zuckerberg is not a human, the Polybius videogame was a government-run crowdsourced psychology experiment, or the animated TV show The Simpsons is evidence of predictive programming. While some individuals subscribe to media conspiracy beliefs, the potential predictors and effects of these beliefs remain underexplored. Studying these beliefs is necessary because findings and interpretations of conspiracy beliefs cannot be indiscriminately generalized across different conspiracy beliefs or contexts without empirical evidence. For example, conspiracy theories about the same target (such as those concerning the origin of COVID-19) may have different predictors and outcomes, or a single conspiracy belief may produce contrasting effects across diverse populations. Accordingly, my thesis aimed to conceptualise and measure belief in media conspiracy theories, explore its associated consequences, investigate its determinants, and pilot test an intervention to address them. Specifically, I ask: How can we conceptualize and measure belief in media conspiracy theories? What are the possible mental health and sociopolitical consequences associated with such beliefs? How do sociodemographic factors, personality traits, thinking styles, and media use patterns contribute to belief in media conspiracy theories? Finally, can an online educational intervention on mindful social media use reduce media conspiracy beliefs? In Study 1, I draw upon the definitions of conspiracy theories and beliefs, the characteristics of conspiracy theories and beliefs, and conceptually similar constructs (i.e., scepticism and cynicism). I develop a conceptualisation and measure of belief in media conspiracy theories. I define media conspiracy belief as a belief that powerful, secretive groups are manipulating media to advance hidden, harmful agendas. These alleged agendas are perceived as extreme and are believed to have devastating consequences for ordinary individuals and society (e.g., programming people through media). The results indicated good psychometric properties of the 7-item unidimensional Belief in Media Conspiracy Theories Scale across three convenience samples from Australia, Iran, and the Philippines. This measure then forms the basis for the subsequent empirical exploration in Chapters 3–5. In Study 2, utilizing convenience samples from five societies (i.e., Australia, Iran, the Philippines, the US, and Hungary), media conspiracy beliefs significantly predicted future anxiety in the Australian, Iranian, and Hungarian samples. With the exception of the Iranian sample, media conspiracy beliefs were positively associated with xenophobia in all other samples. Media conspiracy beliefs were consistently linked to perceptions of a breakdown in the social fabric and to a dangerous and threatening social worldview across all samples. These results suggest that media conspiracy beliefs, similar to many widely recognized conspiracy beliefs (e.g., COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs), may be associated with hostile attitudes and worldviews. In Study 3, using convenience samples from Australia, Iran, and the Philippines, sociodemographic factors, personality traits, and thinking styles demonstrated very weak or non-significant associations with media conspiracy beliefs. These results suggest that media conspiracy beliefs may not be significantly predictable based on the factors typically discussed in the literature regarding their contribution to conspiracy beliefs. However, notably, mindful use of social media consistently emerged as a negatively correlated factor across all samples. In Study 4, conducted with a sample of Iranian social media users, the online educational intervention promoting mindful social media use effectively reduced both media conspiracy beliefs and general conspiracism. This result suggests that the way users approach social media—an important source of information and an environment conducive to the circulation of conspiracy theories—may influence their level of conspiracism. Overall, my findings suggest that the media is not merely a channel for conspiracy beliefs but could itself become the target of conspiracy theories. Media conspiracy beliefs may be associated with negative sociopolitical consequences, akin to those associated with prominent conspiracy beliefs, such as COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs. Media conspiracy beliefs may not be easily predicted based on the factors commonly discussed in the literature as predictors of conspiracy beliefs (e.g., personality traits). However, the quality of social media use—rather than the time spent—may be a contributing factor, with improvements in this area could reduce both media conspiracy beliefs and general conspiracism. In this thesis, I aimed to move beyond the bias of collecting data exclusively from WEIRD countries. However, I did not engage in cross-cultural statistical analysis or interpretation. By studying the underexplored domain of media conspiracy beliefs, I sought to provide a preliminary understanding of the topic and contribute to the literature on conspiracism and specific conspiracy beliefs, the measurement of conspiracy beliefs, the relationship between media and conspiracism, the correlates of conspiracy beliefs, and interventions aimed at reducing conspiracism.
Keywords: Conspiracy, conspiracy belief, conspiracy theories, media, conceptualisation, measurement, mental health, sociopolitical outcome, sociodemographics, personality, thinking styles, media use, mindful use of social media, intervention, Australia, Iran, the United States, the Philippines, Hungary
Subject: Psychology thesis
Thesis type: Doctor of Philosophy
Completed: 2025
School: College of Education, Psychology and Social Work
Supervisor: Professor Emma Thomas