Author: Khun Khit San
San, Khun Khit, 2025 Dividing Success and Failure: The Critical Role of the Military and Opposition Political Parties in Democratic Transition, Flinders University, College of Business, Government and Law
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This thesis examines the factors that contribute to successful democratic transitions in divided societies through a comparative analysis of four cases: two successful transitions (South Africa and Indonesia) and two failed transitions (Libya and Sudan). The thesis was motivated by Myanmar’s failure of democratization, which has been hindered by military dominance, ethnic tensions, and a fragmented opposition. The study investigates the roles of military support, opposition political parties, civil society, and constitution-making in shaping democratic outcomes. Using a Structured Focused Comparison (SFC) methodology, the findings reveal that military and opposition involvement are crucial for a successful transition, while civil society and inclusive constitution-making, though important, are not decisive. Lessons from South Africa and Indonesia suggest that Myanmar’s path to democratization requires engaging the military as a key political actor and fostering opposition unity.
Keywords: Democratic transition, divided societies, military, opposition, civil society, and constitution-making.
Subject: International Relations thesis
Thesis type: Masters
Completed: 2025
School: College of Business, Government and Law
Supervisor: Dr. Jessica Genauer