A mathematical model for seasonal patterns of Dengue fever in Laos

Author: Pinkham Thanavanh

Thanavanh, Pinkham, 2018 A mathematical model for seasonal patterns of Dengue fever in Laos, Flinders University, College of Science and Engineering

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Dengue fever has been a health problem for many decades especially in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Laos is a one of the countries where a dengue epidemic has been declared twice in the current decade; in 2010 and 2013. This paper states the concerns whether the seasonal pattern influence the disease transmission in this country. A mathematical dynamic methodology is used in this paper to indicate how the spreading of dengue fever is influenced by seasonal patterns. This thesis will be based on the model of research study from (Ding et al.,2012) only is considered because as it has similar focusing area as this paper aims to present. However, the study of (Ding et al., 2012) considered multiple groups, no explicit formula for equilibria were given and the basic reproduction number was not computed. In this thesis, only one group is considered, but explicit formulae for equilibria are found as the basic reproduction number (R_0). Numerical simulations demonstrate the seasonal influence.

Keywords: Dengue, mathematical dynamic model, seasonal pattern, Laos, the basic reproduction number, epidemic

Subject: Mathematics thesis

Thesis type: Masters
Completed: 2018
School: College of Science and Engineering
Supervisor: Murk Bottema