 Abstract | Indonesia has the highest number outbreaks of avian flu in poultry and the greatest
number of human casualties due to avian flu. It has also been speculated that the
country poses the biggest threat for a future epidemic caused by a mutated virus
resulting from recombination between avian flu and other strains of influenza-A. Work
to mitigate the impact of avian flu and control the spread of disease in Indonesia,
where millions of poor people rely on poultry for their livelihoods, is very important.
A synthesis of available best practice in emergency response is needed to advise the
country in capacity building, surveillance methods, and approaches for coping with new
introductions of avian flu as well as future emerging disease threats. Several important
issues in the control and impact of avian
flu in Indonesia are little understood.
Indonesia has difficulties in containing avian flu due to enormous and complex
problems. Four main non medical factors in the spread and control of the disease
are domestic farming practices, the prominence of wet markets, lack of government
coordination on disease prevention, and economic constraints. This thesis addresses
the problems of modeling the effects of these factors to the spread and control of avian flu and possible mutated viruses. It is assumed that a mutated virus, referred to here as mutant-avian flu, emerges as a result of a rare virus recombination between avian flu and swine flu.
More specifically, it is assumed that avian flu, swine flu and mutant-avian flu are
spreading among linked populations of poultry and humans. The populations are characterized
by their disease states. The dynamics of the disease states are described as deterministic processes and modeled in the form of well defined disease dynamic problems (DDPs) and optimal disease control problems (ODCPs). The basic reproduction numbers are defined for avian flu transmission among birds, swine flu transmission among humans
and mutant-avian flu transmission among humans. The equilibrium points of the systems are given as functions of the basic reproduction numbers. Stability analysis of the equilibrium points are given. Some are globally asymptotically stable (GAS), and others are locally asymptotically stable (LAS). Disease controls are defined as functions of the basic reproduction numbers. The disease controls describe the effort to reduce
the effectiveness of the force of infection.
The models do not attempt to match observations in high detail but are intended
to capture the main features of the disease dynamics under certain assumptions. As
analytical tools, the models and methods developed in this study help to better understand
the dynamic behavior of avian flu, swine flu and mutant-avian flu among linked
populations of poultry and humans in Indonesia. The models presented in this thesis
are intended to demonstrate the feasibility of constructing a model-based tool to inform
decision making bodies in Indonesia regarding the management of future epidemics. |
